Abstract

The author examines whether COVID-19 will become endemic or fade, comparing past pandemics and models of immunity and transmission. They assess the impacts of lockdown versus herd immunity, the feasibility of a vaccine, and long‑term economic consequences — shifts in industry, carbon emissions and attitudes to globalisation — as well as potential political effects, such as strains on the EU and renewed emphasis on local supply chains. The paper argues that uncertain immunity and asymptomatic prevalence make persistent circulation plausible, with lasting social, economic and geopolitical consequences.